05/17/2026
Be prepared! The watches and warnings are already happening! Be safe everyone!
URGENT UPDATE🚨‼️- TORNADO WATCH COMING BY 2-3pm for parts of Northeastern and Southeast and / for all severe hazards risk for 90MPH WINDS💨, SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL🥎, and STRONG TORNADOES 💪🌪️💪.
🔴 DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated convection is ongoing across north-central NE ahead of the surface cold front. The downstream airmass is quickly destabilizing as rich boundary-layer moisture (mid to upper 60s F dewpoints) spreads north and west amid strong heating. Immediately downstream from the ongoing thunderstorm cluster, latest mesoanalysis indicates weakening midlevel capping. This is supported by increasing cumulus from Brown to Knox and Antelope Counties in NE in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary boundary/warm front. Increasing midlevel southwesterly flow is evident in the past couple of hours on region VWP. This trend should continue, with additional strengthening of low-level flow in response to surface pressure falls. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes within moderate to strong instability (by mid/late afternoon) will support robust supercell development within the warm sector on the nose of the midlevel dry slot across the northeast NE vicinity. Discrete supercells will pose
risk for very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts.