17/12/2023
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐. ๐
๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ #๐๐๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ง๐๐ (๐๐๐๐๐ช๐๐)
๐๐ด๐ด๐ถ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ต ๐ป:๐ถ๐ถ ๐๐, ๐ท๐พ ๐๐ฆ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ธ๐ถ๐ธ๐น
๐๐ข๐ญ๐ช๐ฅ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฃ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ค๐ข๐ด๐ต ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต๐ช๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐น๐ต ๐ฃ๐ถ๐ญ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ต๐ช๐ฏ ๐ข๐ต ๐พ:๐ถ๐ถ ๐๐ ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ข๐บ.
โ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐โ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐.
โฃ
๐๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ (๐:๐๐ ๐๐)
The center of Tropical Storm KABAYAN was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Caraga, Davao Oriental (7.4ยฐN, 127.2ยฐE)
โฃ
๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒโฃ
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
โฃ
๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ:
West Northwestward at 15 km/h
โฃ
๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ช๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ โฃ
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 420 km from the center
โฃ
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ (๐๐๐ช๐) ๐๐ ๐๐
๐
๐๐๐โฃ
๐๐๐ช๐ ๐๐จ. ๐
Wind threat: Gale-force windsโฃ
Warning lead time: 24 hoursโฃ
Range of wind speeds: 62to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)โฃ
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ง๐๐จ
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, the northern portion of Agusan del Norte (Kitcharao, Jabonga, Santiago, City of Cabadbaran, Remedios T. Romualdez, Tubay), the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Trento, Bunawan, San Francisco, Rosario, Prosperidad, City of Bayugan, Sibagat), and the northern portion of Davao Oriental (Boston, Cateel)
๐๐๐ช๐ ๐๐จ. ๐โฃ
Wind threat: Strong winds โฃ
Warning lead time: 36 hoursโฃ
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)โฃ
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and propertyโฃ
โฃ๐๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ง
The southern portion of mainland Palawan (Sofronio Espaรฑola, Brooke's Point, Bataraza, Balabac, Rizal, Quezon, Narra) and Cagayancillo Islands
๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฌโฃ
Southern Leyte, Leyte, the southern portion of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao), the southern portion of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, City of Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General Macarthur, Hernani, Mercedes), Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, and Guimaras
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๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ง๐๐จโฃ
The rest of Agusan del Norte, the rest of Agusan del Sur, the central portion of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga, Tarragona, Lupon, Banaybanay), Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, the northern portion of Maguindanao del Norte (Buldon, Barira, Matanog, Parang, Sultan Kudarat, Sultan Mastura), the northern portion of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet, Libungan, Pigkawayan), the northern and central portions of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, Pres. Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeรฑa Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piรฑan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal, Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Labason, Kalawit, Tampilisan, Liloy, Salug, Godod, Bacungan), Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐
๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
๐๐๐๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐คโฃ
โฃ
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
โข 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, and the northern portions of Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental.
โข 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, and the rest of Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
โข 50-100 mm: Mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and Kalayaan Islands
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, the Shear Line coinciding with the passage of KABAYAN may bring heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ โฃ
โฃ
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
โข Minor to moderate impacts from gale force winds may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
โข Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring also gusty conditions for the next 2 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
โข Today and Tomorrow: Most of Luzon and Visayas
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๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
Under the influence of the Northeast Monsoon surge and Tropical Storm KABAYAN, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon, the eastern and central seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacraft (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 AM today.
Outside the coastal waters under Gale Warning, moderate to rough seas are likely over the western seaboards of Central (1.5-3.5 m) and Southern Luzon, the western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and the remaining seaboard of Visayas (1.25-3.0 m). Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
โข Hazards such as severe wind and heavy rainfall may be experienced in areas that are not close to the track forecast. Refer to the โHazards affecting land areasโ for more detailed information.
โข A southward shift in the track forecast has been observed. KABAYAN is forecast to track generally westward or west northwestward path across the Philippine archipelago over the next two days.
โข On the track forecast, KABAYAN will likely to make landfall as a tropical storm along the coast of Davao Oriental or southern Surigao del Sur this morning. It will then cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over the Sulu Sea between this afternoon and evening. Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, KABAYAN is forecast to be downgraded into a tropical depression, and the possibility of being further downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out (although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea).
โข Afterwards, KABAYAN will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cagayancillo Islands. The tropical cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a tropical depression by tomorrow morning or afternoon, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea shortly thereafter. KABAYAN may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning.
โข It is imperative to stress that the forecast track and intensity may still change given its nature and strength.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
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