07/05/2026
I’d say sports will be canceled this weekend.
Here's an update from our Hydrology team on what we expect to see weather-wise across the region.
MetService has upgraded the yellow weather watch for heavy rain across the eastern ranges to an orange warning, and extended the area to include the Nelson Lakes. An orange heavy rain warning also remains in place for the lower Motueka, Riwaka and Golden Bay area, and another one for the southern end of the western ranges to the Buller River.
The majority of the Nelson Tasman region is now under an orange heavy rain warning advisory for overnight Thursday and Friday, with a moderate risk of thunderstorms across all areas under a warning.
In the west, moderately high rainfall totals and intensities are forecast, with a moderate risk of thunderstorm activity.
Based on the current forecast, we expect moderate flooding in the Tākaka River and tributaries, between an annual flood flow and 5-year flood flows, which may see the river flow outside of normal river channels and across adjacent paddocks. The Cobb Dam has good capacity for storage.
We expect low to moderate flooding in the Aorere River, Riwaka and Brooklyn Rivers, and main Motueka River, with annual flood flows possible, where rivers are running bank full but contained within banks.
Based on the current forecast, we expect moderate flooding in the Motupiko River catchment, between annual flood flow and 5-year flood flows, with a possibility that the river may flow outside normal river channels and across adjacent paddocks.
In the east, moderately high rainfall totals and intensities are forecast, with a moderate risk of thunderstorm activity.
Based on the current forecast, we expect low to moderate flooding in the Wai-iti, Wairoa and Maitai Rivers, with annual flood flows possible, where rivers are running bank full but contained within banks. However, allowing for a moderate risk of thunderstorm activity, it would be prudent to plan for slightly higher flows, between annual flood flow and 5-year flood flows, where rivers are running bank full and may flow across adjacent low-lying paddocks and across known low points in roads.
It is very difficult to forecast for thunderstorm activity and heavy downpours, and localised surface flooding is possible across the region.
Whilst starting with relatively dry ground, this event is slightly longer duration and has heavy rain with thunderstorms possible later in the event when the ground will be saturated. There is a possibility of land slippage across the hills behind Pōhara, Abel Tasman, Richmond and Nelson.
The tidal range is moderate at present, but with very strong northerly winds on Friday, there is the potential for larger-than-normal wind-driven waves along northerly facing beaches of Golden and Tasman Bays Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This includes shorelines between Ruby Bay and Cable Bay.
Links for more information:
• MetService warnings: https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home -south.
• Road closures across the region: https://rebrand.ly/httfpkm
• River flow reports: https://www.tasman.govt.nz/flow-report/
• Rainfall reports: https://www.tasman.govt.nz/report/
